IMF raises sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast but warns on inflation

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for sub-Saharan African growth in 2026 to 4.5%, from 4.3% in April, citing domestic reforms and an economy that has adapted better than expected to global supply disruption. The improvement does not remove the region’s exposure to debt, expensive energy and falling aid.

Median inflation is now projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% this year and 5% in 2027, Reuters reported from the IMF’s regional outlook. The fund said monetary tightening may be needed in many countries. Interest payments already consume about 12% of government revenue, while higher US bond yields are increasing borrowing costs.

Bilateral aid is forecast to fall another 12% in 2026 after a much larger decline last year. The IMF also modelled a strong El Niño as a downside risk that could subtract half a percentage point from growth and add 2.6 percentage points to inflation in 2027 by disrupting agriculture and food supplies.

The upgraded headline therefore describes resilience, not ample protection. Governments face the difficult task of controlling prices and debt without suppressing investment, while commodity windfalls and reforms will produce uneven results across countries.