IMF lifts 2026 growth forecast to 3.1% but warns AI and debt leave outlook exposed

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, from 3.0% in July, while projecting 3.4% growth in 2027. Its World Economic Outlook says investment linked to artificial intelligence is cushioning the effects of high energy prices and geopolitical strain, particularly in advanced economies and technology supply chains.

The improvement is narrow. Reuters and Associated Press reported that 32 economies account for about 95% of expected global growth, while several Middle Eastern economies face contraction linked to war and disrupted energy trade. The IMF expects the United States to grow 2.3% this year, China 4.5% and India 7.0%.

A separate IMF financial-stability assessment warns that a loss of confidence in AI returns could produce a sharp asset-price correction. It also points to rising government bond yields, cyber threats and weak capital positions at banks holding about 22% of global banking assets. These are risk scenarios, not predictions that a crash is inevitable.

The reports were released during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Their central message is that headline growth remains resilient, but governments have less fiscal room to absorb another energy, debt or technology shock.